Buy Last Year's #1 Stock?
Prior-year S&P 500 winner vs. the S&P 500. $1,000 invested on the first trading day of each year.
Winner strategy
$357,100
S&P 500
$104,800
Stock won
11 of 20 years
| Buy year | Prior year's winner | Prior return | $1,000 in stock | $1,000 in S&P |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | Apple | 123.3% | $141,700 | $9,000 |
| 2007 | Allegheny Technologies | 152.9% | $2,800 | $7,900 |
| 2008 | National Oilwell Varco | 140.1% | $400 | $7,600 |
| 2009 | Family Dollar* | ~35.6% | $3,700 | $11,500 |
| 2010 | XL Capital* | ~395.4% | $3,600 | $9,200 |
| 2011 | Netflix | 218.9% | $31,800 | $8,100 |
| 2012 | Cabot Oil & Gas / Coterra | 101.1% | $3,000 | $7,900 |
| 2013 | PulteGroup | 187.8% | $8,000 | $6,700 |
| 2014 | Netflix | 297.6% | $15,600 | $5,200 |
| 2015 | Southwest Airlines | 126.3% | $1,000 | $4,600 |
| 2016 | Netflix | 134.4% | $7,400 | $4,600 |
| 2017 | Nvidia | 227% | $88,000 | $4,000 |
| 2018 | NRG Energy | 133.7% | $4,600 | $3,300 |
| 2019 | AMD | 79.6% | $25,000 | $3,500 |
| 2020 | AMD | 148.4% | $9,600 | $2,600 |
| 2021 | Tesla | 743.4% | $1,500 | $2,300 |
| 2022 | Devon Energy | 195.9% | $1,300 | $1,700 |
| 2023 | Occidental Petroleum | 119.1% | $1,000 | $2,100 |
| 2024 | Nvidia | 239% | $4,600 | $1,700 |
| 2025 | Palantir | 340.5% | $2,500 | $1,300 |
Green rows indicate the selected stock finished above its matching S&P 500 investment.
Per-year bet
$1,000
Buy years
20
Strategy total
$357,100
- $1,000 invested on the first trading day of each buy year.
- Each row buys the prior year's S&P 500 top performer.
- Dividends reinvested.
- Returns use adjusted-price history.
- Values through Aug. 31, 2026 and rounded.
- No taxes. No trading fees.